Symposia
Research Methods and Statistics
Esther Howe, M.A. (she/her/hers)
University of California at Berkeley
Berkeley, California
Sexual assault is pervasive and costly to individuals and society. Compared to survivors of other types of trauma, sexual assault survivors are at higher risk of developing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Testa et al., 2012; Dworkin et al., 2020). While there are well-established verbal theories regarding the dynamic psychological processes underlying PTSD emergence during the weeks and months after a potentially traumatic event (Foa & Kozack, 1985, 1986; Ehlers & Clark, 2000), extant empirical investigations into these processes are incomplete: Most focus on individual components of what is ostensibly a multivariate set of dynamic processes, many neglect to interrogate time as a key factor in all dynamic processes, and few allow for multiple pathways to the same diagnosis. The present study uses intensive, repeated measures data collection (ecological momentary assessment surveys, 8x per day for 15-21 days), and novel data analytic methods that leverage set theory, probability, and information theory, to empirically test leading verbal theories of PTSD emergence in a sample of recently-assaulted female-sexed and -gendered adults (current N=55; estimated sample size by time of presentation is N=100). Using two newly developed algorithms from our lab, we (1) evaluate the co-occurrence of cognitive, behavioral, and emotional states and environmental context factors within individuals, and (2) evaluate the degree to which these idiographic state-environment sets predict the occurrence of PTSD at 3-month follow-up. Finally, we review the extent to which findings are congruent with verbal theories described by Foa & Kozack (1985, 1986) and Ehlers & Clark (2000). Findings will advance knowledge of the short-term psychological dynamics of PTSD emergence and may help to refine preventative interventions (Bryant, 2021; Price et al., 2020), adapt existing treatments for those who do not benefit from “gold standard” treatments (Skeenkamp et al., 2015, 2016), and inform the development of new “light weight” or remote treatments for those unable to access current treatment options (Bryant, 2019; Kessler, 2000; Vogt, 2011).
